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High-speed rail in developing countries and potential inequalities of use: the case of Morocco

The question is now to identify how high‐speed rail is integrated into Moroccan society, in
terms of income and uses.

4.4 Limited access inequalities in terms of fares

According to the ONCF, the Moroccan HSR project has been designed differently from
other similar projects developed elsewhere – especially in Europe, where high‐speed
trains compete with air travel. It is expected that HSR will be used by a large majority of
Moroccans and not just the wealthiest sections of the population (ONCF, p. 18). If this turns
out to be the case, Moroccan high speed‐rail services could be compared to Turkish HSR,
which offers relatively cheap fares (cf. above) and directly competes with bus services. In
Morocco, “pricing will be incentive‐based and competitive, in harmony with the purchasing
power of conventional train users” (ONCF, p. 18), in accordance with the King’s wishes that
the service be designed for the greatest possible number of people. The inequalities of
access in terms of pricing should therefore be relatively low.

However, the exact fare structure and prices are not yet known, as of August 2017.

But we can estimate the prices. According to the journal Jeune Afrique and the ONCF, the
23
price increase should be very low. Casablanca–Tangier ticket prices should only increase by
MAD 17 (EUR 1.50), that is to say an increase of 12.9%, and should cost just under MAD 150 ,
24
or about EUR 45 in PPP, for 350 km. This would be only MAD 4 more than the bus ride .
25
Assuming that the 12.9% increase will apply to all journeys , the price of a journey from
26
Tangier to Kenitra would be MAD 100.80 (MAD 90 currently + MAD 10.80), or about EUR
30.10 in PPP, while a ticket for Marrakesh to Tangier would cost MAD 243.80 (216 + 27.80),
compared with MAD 235 for the same journey by bus, which corresponds to a little more
than EUR 73 in PPP.
If our estimates are correct, it is clear that pricing will be low and likely to be set at a
level close to current ticket prices for bus travel. Moreover, unlike Turkey, where prices are
fixed, pricing will be based on a yield‐management system. This means it will be possible
to buy tickets at prices close to the cost of classic tickets for certain timetable slots, thus
encouraging use by more diversified populations.
The next question, however, is to know what these prices represent in Morocco – in other
words, what is the purchasing power of the Moroccan currency?
Morocco is characterized by a relatively low level of development. With $7,266 of GDP
per capita (current international PPP $ from 2011; cf. Table 2 above) in 2014, it is among
the lower‐middleincome countries according to the World Bank. In terms of the Human
Development Index (HDI), Morocco’s score of 0.647 in 2015 placed it in 123 position out of
rd
188 countries, although this ranking has been constantly increasing since 1980.
In 2015, the non‐agricultural minimum wage was MAD 2,570 per hour (or EUR 240 per
month).

23 See: http://www.jeuneafrique.com/30394/economie/le‐tgv‐tanger‐casablanca‐en‐sept‐points/.
24 It should be borne in mind, however, that ticket prices did increase in early 2016 as a result of a rise in the VAT rate
from 14% to 20%. Source: http://telquel.ma/2016/01/05/decouvrez‐les‐nouveaux‐tarifsloncf_1476364/.
25 Our calculation, based on Supratours data; source: http://www.supratours.ma/.
26 This will not necessarily be the case, as certain journeys or sections of journeys will be made by HST but on conventional lines;
any price increases that are implemented for such journeys are therefore likely to be limited.

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