Page 25 - 360.revista de Alta Velocidad - Nº 6

The demand in a railway corridor after the HSR

8. Conclusions

The main conclusions drawn from these analysis are the following:

1. A new HSL substantially modifies the modal split, observing that:

• The most affected mode is the airplane, whose participation in the demand decreases
drastically, basically maintaining only connection traffic.
• HSR reaches a participation between 25% and 35% of the trips.
• Car is still the majority mode, with more than half of the trips.

2. A great percentage of frequent passengers did not travel previously, 22,6% in Valencia
and 10,2% in Alicante.

3. Regarding the economic crisis effect, we can observe:

• Total mobility was in 2011 at the level of the year 2000, what is known in economy
as "lost decade".
• As of 2013/2014 with the recovery of the economy, it is observed that mobility returns
to positive growth rates.
• Analysis of the evolution of demand before and during the crisis has seen a greater
dynamism in Valencia, with strong growth both before the crisis (+ 5.5% per annum)
and during the crisis (-6.2% annual).
• In the case of Alicante, where this dynamism of mobility is lower, there is a greater
recovery after the crisis than in Valencia (+ 3.3% vs. 2.1%).

4. Studies of forecasting passenger demand between Madrid and Levante carried out
before the new HSL estimated quite accurately the modal share with HSR, but due to
the economic crisis the forecasts of global mobility have not been fulfilled.

9. References

• Ministerio de Fomento (1997), Informative Study of the HSL Madrid-Castilla La Mancha-
Comunidad Valenciana-Region of Murcia.
• ADIF (2007-2008), Demand Study of Madrid-Levante HSL.
• ADIF (2008-2010), Demand Study of Madrid-Galicia/Asturias HSL.
• ADIF (2012-2015), Demand Study after opening the HSL Madrid-Levante.

• ADIF AV (2016-present): Demand Study of Madrid-Galicia/Asturias HSL.

International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 23