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Measuring The Long-Term Regional Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China Using a Dynami








































                                             Source: The Compilation of Railway Statistics, 2003-2014
                                          Figure 5. Rail Transportation Cost by Regions in China: 2002-2013

                   Given the focus of our assessment is HSR, which is essentially a passenger rail system, the
                   average technological speed of passenger rail of different regional rail bureaus was adopted
                                                                                    3
                   as the proxy to calculate travel time change in different years .  As illustrated in Figure 5,
                   the travel time costs measured by number of hours need per 100 kilometers generally decline
                   during 2002 and 2013, which could be considered as the outcome driven by an improvement in
                   rail infrastructure.

                   One should also note that such a calculation has three limitations: First, given the specific
                   focus of our research objective and the data availability, the speed change of freight rail and
                   monetary travel cost are not considered. Second, we do not differentiate whether the speed is
                   due to a hardware improvement (e.g. infrastructure improvement) or a software adjustment
                   (e.g. a regulatory adjustment due to a concern on safety, the advancement in rail operation
                   and management, and etc.). Nevertheless, all these issues need to be further addressed in the
                   future once such data becomes available.


                   •  D. Productivity Change


                   The massive rail investment  in  China,  particularly in  developing  HSR, is likely  to improve
                   the overall productivity of passenger rail system given the adoption of various advanced HSR
                   technologies. Since a productivity shock in CGE model indicates a technology improvement of

                   3    Although the Chinese railways are owned and managed by the National Railway Corporation (the formal Ministry of Railways),
                   the operation and maintenance are managed by 18 regional railway entities, including Harbin Railway Bureau, Shenyang Railway
                   Bureau, Beijing Railway Bureau, Taiyuan Railway Bureau, Hohhot Railway Bureau, Zhengzhou Railway Bureau, Wuhan Railway
                   Bureau, Xi ‘ an Railway Bureau, Jinan Railway Bureau, Shanghai Railway Bureau, Nanchang Railway Bureau, Guangzhou Railway
                   (group) Company, Nanning Railway Bureau, Chengdu Railway Bureau, Kunming Railway Bureau, Lanzhou Railway Bureau, and
                   Urumqi Railway Bureau.

                   International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor  399
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