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Measuring The Long-Term Regional Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China Using a Dynami

where WB and ∆Track denote the arable land area and new added rail track length in region
r,t
r,t
r in year t, whereas M represents the additional area size required for developing one km
of rail track. Following Chen, et al. (2016), the value of 5 hectares of land/km is adopted in
this calculation. One should note that the aforementioned calculation is derived upon two
assumptions: First, the land use for new rail line construction is solely converted from arable
land. Second, the land use efficiency for rail infrastructure development is assumed to be
consistent across different regions.

The extended land use effect as a result of rail development can be estimated using the similar
approach adopted in Chen et al. (2016). The method assumes that urban land use due to a
new rail infrastructure development can be estimated if the linear relationship between them
is understood. The estimated results of arable land area change due to HSR Development in
China is illustrated in Figure 3, which show two clear patterns: First, the level of arable land
reduction caused by the extended land use is more substantial than the direct land use. Second,
the level change of the arable land varies significantly both temporally and spatially.

Source: National Statistics Bureau of China.
Figure 3. Estimated Arable Land Area Reduction due to HSR Development in China

• B. Capital Investment

Capital investment is one of the major drivers for regional economic growth, hence a detailed
data source that reflects the regional rail capital investment pattern is essential for a valid
regional economic impact assessment. The data of capital investment in rail infrastructure
development for the period 2002-2013 is obtained from the Compilation of Railway Statistics.
In particular, the data includes capital expenditure in four major fields: rail route construction,
facility construction, procurement of rail equipment, such as rolling stock and EMU and the

International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 397