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número 5 - junio - 2018. Pág 385 - 407

Measuring The Long-Term Regional Economic Impacts

of High-Speed Rail in China Using a Dynamic SCGE Model 1

Zhenhua Chen

The Ohio State University
2

Abstract

This paper introduces a comprehensive framework to assess the regional economic
impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) in China with a focus on its long-term implications.
This research has two major research highlights: First, the regional impacts of HSR are
evaluated under a dynamic and spatial (multiregional) general equilibrium modeling
framework. Such a framework provides a comprehensive understanding of the impacts
with variations in both space and time. Second, the assessment provides a demonstrative
example of an ex post evaluation of the impacts based on the actual rail infrastructure
investment data for the period of 2002 – 2013 using on a dynamic recursive multi-regional
CGE model. The research findings confirm that rail infrastructure development in China
has a positive regional economic impacts with a gross output multiplier of 1.01 and a GDP
multiplier of 0.1 in the long-run. The aggregate impacts were found to be the highest
in the southwest region, whereas the impacts are relatively small in developed eastern
regions. The research findings provide implications for future HSR development in both
China and other countries.

Keywords: high-speed rail, regional economic impact, investment, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model.

1 Although the term “High-Speed Rail” is adopted, the discussion de facto focuses more broadly on the Chinese rail
infrastructure development in general due to the following concerns: First, the Chinese HSR development policy involves
not only the mid- and long-term development for HSR, regular passenger rail and freight rail are also included. Hence,
a broader focus on rail would be more appropriate to evaluate the effectiveness of the related infrastructure planning
and policy. Second, an assessment with a focus only on the HSR systems is not feasible due to the lack of specific
statistical information reflecting the true “HSR” investment strategies and operating performance. Another important
consideration is that since many new developed HSR infrastructure facilities, such as stations, rail tracks are also utilized
to serve regular passenger rail service, such a broader assessment of rail would be reasonable to achieve a more practical
investigation.
2 Zhenhua Chen. The Ohio State University. Email: chen.7172@osu.edu. (corresponding author)

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