Page 383 - 360.revista de Alta Velocidad - Nº 5

Economic, geographical and time-based exclusion as main factors inhibiting Spanish users from choosing High
Speed Rail

Regarding the goodness of fit obtained, the Nagelkerke R is quite high (around 0.65) as well as
2
R 2 adj . In this respect, the explanatory variables chosen in the model seem to properly reproduce
users’ behaviour. Moreover, given that the variable INCOME<2000 is not correlated with the ECO-
EXC variable and did not resulted statistically significant, it has been removed from the model.
Then, the final model estimation is presented in Table 8, including only significant variables.

Table 8 - Estimation results (with all significant variables)

2
In this model the values of both R and R 2adj are quite high. Moreover this model shows how the
choice of AVE is influenced by having already used it (at least once) and by the economic, geo-
graphical and time-based exclusion.

6. Conclusions and further perspectives

In this paper the relationship between HSR and social exclusion has been analysed. Following
the framework proposed by Church, et al. (2000), the motivations fostering the choice of HSR
in Spain have been analysed together with the factors inhibiting from the use of this service.

The results of a Revealed Preference survey have shown that only some criteria are perceived
by the users when making the choice. For those who have not chosen HSR, the main reason is
the economic exclusion, i.e. the cost of the HSR ticket. It follows the geographical exclusion,
i.e. the low accessibility to the departure/arrival station. The fact that both criteria are greatly
perceived by low income classes can be interpreted by the residential location of this type of
travellers. Regarding the relationship between the perception of economic and geographical
exclusion, it results that those individuals with higher incomes live in city centres, generally
served by good public transport and taxi services. Indeed a good public transport system can
allow an easy access to the departure/arrival stations. Likewise, improving accessibility to HSR
stations outside metropolitan contexts can play a key role to reduce the geographical exclusion
within the same country, even in the case of an extended HSR network as the Spanish one.
To support the results of the survey, a quantitative approach has been proposed, through the
specification and calibration of a mode choice model, which aims at evaluating the perception
of social exclusion. Three aspects of social exclusion have been considered (economic,
geographical and time-based exclusion). Estimation results show how the choice of HSR services
is influenced by having already used it (at least once) and by the economic, geographical and
time-based exclusion.

Further perspectives will consider the collection of a larger data set which can support these
findings and the specification and calibration of more sophisticated models. Specifically, more
complex mode choice model specifications can be adopted to model users´ choices such as
nested or mixed logit. These alternatives could be useful to explore additional factors such as
the choice among all available alternatives (i.e, not only HSR versus non-HSR) or heterogeneity
in preferences among respondents. Furthermore, a structural equation approach could be
estimated to identify the specific aspects determining perceptions towards each component of
social exclusion (economic, geographical, etc.) in more detail.

International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 381