Page 313 - 360.revista de Alta Velocidad - Nº 6

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número 6 - junio - 2018. Pág 311 - 323

Regional diffusion and adoption effects on HSR demand expansion

Kim, Junghwa

Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk

Li, Yeun-Touh

Demizu, Fumiaki

Kyoto University 1
NEC (Nippon Electric Company) Corporation

Abstract

High Speed Railway (HSR) has been suggested as one sustainable alternative for
acquiring regional and nationwide mobility. In order to maintain the sustainability
of HSR also within changing socioeconomic structures, it is important to secure
its long-term demand. Therefore this study considered the diffusion theory which
explains technology adoption in the marketing area, as a basis for explaining HSR
ridership increasing by year. Our target area for study is Taiwan High Speed Rail
(THSR). By using the monthly ridership data of THSR between 2007 and 2015, we
calculated yearly Adoption Effects which describes the spread of THSR among
new users. We consider this effect to be a key element to secure long-term
demand. Moreover this study demonstrated that city heterogeneity such as social,
economic and geographical characteristics influence the Adoption Effect. Based
on our findings, we conclude that specifically improving accessibility should be
considered as a policy measure to help stabilizing long-term demand especially
in an aging society.

Keywords: High Speed Rail, Taiwan, Diffusion theory, Heterogeneity, Demand adoption

1 Kim, Junghwa. Kyoto University. Email: junghwa.kim.trans@gmail.com
Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk. Kyoto University. Email: schmoecker@trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp (corresponding author)
Li, Yeun-Touh. Kyoto University. Email joe.liyt@trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp
Demizu, Fumiaki. NEC (Nippon Electric Company) Corporation. Email: fd812812@gmail.com

International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 311