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Long Term Implications of HSR on Small cities: Ciudad Real and Puertollano revisited 25 years after
the arrival of the HSR

These studies help planners to envisage the long term implications of policies, while their
problem is that their internal rationale is based on ex-ante observations (regressions, etc.), but
no ex-post measurements.
Elaborated ex-ante studies on the implications of major new transport infrastructures have to
consider several aspects (Vickerman, 1994):
• The uncertain impact of transport infrastructure since improvements in external connections
are usually two way, due to small contribution of transportation costs on total goods costs
(3-4%) and due to transport can clearly be substituted for other inputs.

• The effects have to be considered on a multiregional basis.
• The implications continue to depend on how individual decision-makers and policymakers
respond to the opportunities presented.
Thus, an added recommendation is to consider both objective (data) and subjective (policies,
strategies) analysis.
The few long-term ex-post studies frequently use comparative studies to explore the implications.
Berger & Enflo (No Date) explore Short- and Long-Term Impact of Railroads comparing cities that
gained access to the railroad network to cities that did not. Berger & Enflo (No Date) indicate
as additional precaution that has to be taken into consideration in these comparative studies,
that it is not straightforward to identify the impact of infrastructure, because investments
are typically allocated to already growing areas; thus comparisons have to ensure that they
include growing cities (with transportation demands) and not growing ones (without much
transportation demand). Comparing cities that gained and not gained early access to railway
in Sweden, 1855-1870, Berger & Enflo (No Date) concluded that cities with early access to the
railroad network:

• property values were higher, manufacturing employment increased, establishments were
larger, and more information was distributed through local post offices, - continued to grow
faster for
• a better part of the 20th century,

• today are substantially larger compared to initially similar cities.

Combination of ex-ante and ex-post analysis to determine the influence of transport infrastructure
investment are starting to be used, although ex-post assessments are often performed only a
few years after complete implementation of projects, often 3 to 5 years (Griskeviciute-Geciene
& Lazauskaite, 2011). On top, ex-post analysis are frequently done in the form of Cost/Benefit
analyses concentrating on determination of direct effects having monetary values, such as the
reduction of travel time value, vehicle operating or infrastructure maintenance costs, without
determination of more wide scope of socioeconomic indirect effects (Griskeviciute-Geciene &
Lazauskaite, 2011). Best practices in several countries include direct and indirect aspects on
ex-post analyses (see Figure 3).

The optimum would be to combine along time three types of studies. First, ex-ante studies on
immediate and long-term expected effects. Second, ex-post studies shortly after infrastructure
operation on immediate measured effects, and compare them with the expected immediate
effects. And third, ex-post studies long after infrastructure operation on the long-term measured
effects, and compare them with the expected long-term effects and with the measured shortterm
ones. This will highlight the differences between expected and measured effects. This will also
allow to refine methodologies for ex-ante evaluations, by trying to deduct differences between
predefined rationales and realised rationales.

International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 211