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High-speed rail and urban development in Spain from 1992 to 2016
Where P is the population in year n+1 or n and IC is the Index of growth in year n+1 or n. The
year 1991 has been established as a 100 base, that is, IC 1991 =100 for all variables. Besides,
the population according to the “Register of Inhabitants” is the population on date of first of
January of each year. So the indicator IC calculated with this data show the growth produced
the previous year. The last IC calculated is for growth of 2015 year.
When a year is a year with new cities with HSR services, the all population of cities with/
without HSR services are recalculated.
On the other hand it exist the problem of metropolitan areas. Often, the city centre of these
areas are urban saturated municipalities. For example, Madrid or Barcelona have the area
of their municipal territory saturated by urban uses from a long time. Consequently, they
cannot increase urban areas and they cannot increase population into their municipal areas (or
the growth is very conditioned). This geographical condition breaks the relationship between
population growth and HSR services.
In addition, the geographical areas of metropolitan areas changes over time when commuting tra-
vels increased and new areas or municipalities are integrated into it (Feria et al, 2016). This work,
to solve this problem, include two analysis. The analysis with the population growth of cities and
the analysis with the population growth of provinces where are located the cities that are city
centre of any metropolitan area. The provincial area is an approximation of metropolitan area
where, usually, there are adequate free zones for urban expansion and, thus, the urban saturated
effect is eliminated. Certainly, their total population isn’t the population of metropolitan area
but the index of population growth is representative for the metropolitan population growth.
4. Results
4.1 Population growth of all cities with HSR services versus all cities without
HSR services Table
Table 3 shows the evolution of Population Growth Index of all cities with HSR services, all Spain
and all cities without HSR services. The graphic show that the cities without HSR services have a
Growth Index (IC or Indice de Crecimiento in Spanish) similar to Spain while the cities with HSR
services have a much smaller IC, even decreasing between 1991 and 2000. Only in two last years
of the series, 2014 and 2015 after 22 years started first HSR services, there is a change of trend:
cities with HSR services increases growth while cities without HSR services decreases growth.
However, as mentioned above, the result may be erroneous due to urban saturation of the
municipalities that are central nucleus of metropolitan areas. Next point explain the results
considering metropolitan areas.
Table 3. Population Growth Index of cities with/without HSR and Spain.
International Congress on High-speed Rail: Technologies and Long Term Impacts - Ciudad Real (Spain) - 25th anniversary Madrid-Sevilla corridor 243
