Page 244 - 360.revista de Alta Velocidad - Nº 6
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Miralles i Garcia, José Luis
Consequently, the cities or regions with HSR services should show greater economic growth
than those do not have such services. On the other hand, the population growth is an indicator
of economic growth. Therefore, it is possible a comparative analyze of the population growth
of cities/regions with/without HSR services and to test if there is any relationship between
them.
The population data series corresponds the period 1991-2016. In this period there is three
economic cycles: crisis cycle from 1991 to 1996, expansion cycle from 1997 to 2007 and crisis
cycle from 2008 to currently (today is complicated to stablish a data finish for this cycle). The
situation is the same for all Spain. Therefore the cities with HSR services, in general, should
have taken advantage of their comparative advantage over all economic cycles.
2. Objectives
The objective of this research is test the relationship between the new HSR services and the economic
development of cities or regions with the new services measured by the population growth indicators.
Specifically, if the cities or regions where the new HSR services have been implemented, have
experienced greater economic growth, as measured by the growth of their population, than
those where HSR services have not been implemented. Or, if there have been changes in the
trend of population growth before and after the start of services.
3. Methodology
The analysis focuses on the growth that has occurred in cities and regions with HSR services and
their comparison with those that do not have such services.
The “Instituto Nacional de Estadística” (INE), Statistics National Institute in English, has annual
dates of inhabitants for all municipalities of Spain by the “Register of inhabitants” from 1996.
Before it exit dates of municipal inhabitants in each Census. Census dates are not annuals.
They have only been made in certain years. Particularly the last Inhabitant and Houses Census
corresponds to the year 1991. The first HSR services started in 1992.
The methodologies to take inhabitants dates are different in Census and Register of Inhabitants
but our interest is focused in growth, not in total inhabitants, to do a comparative analysis. So
this difference is not relevant.
The work analyse three matters:
• The population growth of all cities or regions with HSR services compared with the
population growth of all cities or regions without HSR services.
• The population growth of each city with HSR services compared with the population
growth of all cities with/without HSR services and trend changes.
• The population growth of each city/region with HSR services compared with the
population growth of all cities/regions with/without HSR services and trend changes.
The analysis of first matter present two problems. On the one hand, the list of cities with/
without HSR services changes over time. This problem has been solved as follow. Each year
has been considered with or without HSR services according to the number of months with HSR
services. Only when the number of months is greater than six, the year is considered with HSR
services. This is the year of change and, from this year, the all population of cities with HSR
services increase. The indicator selected to show the population growth is:
242 360.revista de alta velocidad
